A Fresh Look at the 2011 NFL Season Ratings

I took some time this summer to go back over the ratings from this past 2011 NFL season, trying to determine what went right and what went wrong with the ratings system I was using.  I was unhappy with the results from the previous season, and wanted to totally revamp the system.

I tried out about 25 different iterations to the formulas and components, making changes such as how much weight to apply to margin of victory and performance against strong versus weak teams.  I also looked at synthesizing the 10, 8, and 6 game trend ratings along with the normal overall rating.

After I ran all the calculations, I hit upon a new ratings system, which I’m going to roll out this fall.  I reran the entire 2011 NFL season against the spread and it performed at a .571 clip, which was higher than the highest computer tracking program as set out on http://www.thepredictiontracker.com, which monitors all the computer rankings programs.

I am now going through the same exercise with the 2011 NCAA Football season and once that is complete, I will provide everyone with more details on what the results from the NCAA tests were, and how I got to the results for both the NFL and NCAA.

Advertisements

Verlander top AL pitcher in latest MLB computer rankings

Justin Verlander takes over as the top pitcher in the American League, edging out David Price in the most recent computer rankings of starting pitchers released by Bias Free Sports.  The Rangers, Yankees and Rays each have two pitchers in the top ten.  The compete list of ratings for both leagues can be found at www.biasfreerankings.com/mlbplayerratings.htm.  Our new site is up and running, so come by and check us out!

RK Player Team GP GS IP W L ERA K WHIP Rating
1 Justin Verlander DET 16 16 117 8 4 2.520 113 0.970 23.310
2 David Price TB 15 15 97.2 10 4 2.950 90 1.250 22.300
3 CC Sabathia NYY 15 15 107 9 3 3.450 105 1.270 22.280
4 Yu Darvish TEX 14 14 88.2 9 4 3.450 96 1.430 21.220
5 Chris Sale CHW 14 13 88.1 8 2 2.240 89 0.960 21.200
6 Jason Hammel BAL 14 14 89.2 8 2 2.610 87 1.120 20.470
7 C.J. Wilson LAA 15 15 92.1 8 4 2.440 79 1.150 19.810
8 Ivan Nova NYY 14 14 91 9 2 4.250 80 1.380 18.870
9 Matt Harrison TEX 15 15 97.1 10 3 3.240 58 1.250 18.810
10 James Shields TB 15 15 97 7 4 3.990 93 1.360 18.450

Texas Rangers continue to hold top spot in MLB computer rankings

The Texas Rangers continue to be the top team in Major League Baseball according to the latest computer rankings from Bias Free Sports, narrowly edging out the New York Yankees, who have been making a hard charge at the top spot recently, and even held on to first for one brief day.  You can see all the rankings at our newly updated website by going to either the home page at www.biasfreerankings.com, or directly to the team ratings at www.biasfreerankings.com/mlb.htm.  We will start posting our blog on that site in the near future, so bookmark our new site for future reference!

SOS Avg. Runs Avg. Runs Prev
Rating W L SOS Ranking Scored Allowed Rank Change
1 Texas 8.159 45 29 4.61 22 5.24 4.04 1             –
2 NY Yankees 8.099 44 28 4.74 6 4.78 3.94 2             –
3 Washington 7.672 41 30 4.65 16 3.73 3.27 3             –
4 Baltimore 7.585 41 31 4.86 1 4.26 4.21 5             1
5 LA Dodgers 7.581 43 31 4.52 30 4.08 3.64 4            (1)
6 St. Louis 7.521 39 35 4.54 28 5.05 4.14 7             1
7 Cincinnati 7.494 40 32 4.59 23 4.35 3.83 9             2
8 LA Angels 7.480 40 33 4.66 18 4.12 3.67 8             –
9 Tampa Bay 7.473 40 33 4.79 2 4.26 4.08 6            (3)
10 Toronto 7.413 38 35 4.75 3 4.96 4.49 11             1

New Web Site is Now Live!

Bias Free Rankings new web site is up and running, and soon all my blog postings will be moving to that site.  The link for our web page is www.biasfreerankings.com, and the blog portion of the site will be www.biasfreerankings.com/wordpress.  The postings on this blog will continue to remain up for now, and there are no blog postings on the new site at this time, but feel free to visit the rest of the site and let us know what you think!

Bias Free Sports New Web Site going live by June 17th!

Bias Free Sports is moving its web site hosting from webs.com to godaddy.com.  Hopefully this will help with some hosting issues and with the overall look of the site.  I’m still learning the whole website design thing, so bear with me!  Meanwhile, some of the web addresses will change, such as the site for for the MLB team ratings will now be www.biasfreerankings.com/mlbteams.html.   The best thing to do will be to go to the home page, which is www.biasfreerankings.com, and then navigate to the other pages and bookmark them there.

If you have any comments or questions, do not hesitate to email me at gary@biasfreerankings.com!

 

Surprise! The Washington Nationals are the Number 1 team in Major League Baseball

The latest team rankings are out from Bias Free Sports, and shockingly (or maybe not so), the Washington Nationals are the top team in the computer rankings, just edging out the Texas Rangers.  This is a team definitely on the come and one that could be a big player in the trade market with the deadline looming.  To see the full rankings, go to www.biasfreerankings.com/mlb.htm.

SOS Avg. Runs Avg. Runs Prev
Rating W L SOS Ranking Scored Allowed Rank
1 Washington 8.040 38 23 4.64 20 3.93 3.25 2
2 Texas 8.002 37 27 4.66 18 5.23 4.11 1
3 NY Yankees 7.943 37 25 4.71 9 4.73 3.98 3
4 LA Dodgers 7.932 40 24 4.44 30 4.31 3.50 4
5 Baltimore 7.703 37 26 4.83 1 4.60 4.44 5
6 Cincinnati 7.558 35 27 4.63 22 4.37 3.87 8
7 Tampa Bay 7.488 35 28 4.82 2 4.27 4.16 6
8 Atlanta 7.477 34 29 4.72 8 4.67 4.27 9
9 Chi White Sox 7.428 34 29 4.60 26 4.76 4.17 7
10 St. Louis 7.415 33 31 4.56 27 4.91 4.08 11

Strasburg takes over as number one NL pitcher in latest computer rankings

Stephen Strasburg, the Washington National ace, has taken over the top spot in the computer rankings of National League pitchers just released by Bias Free Sports.  Strasburg takes over from R.A. Dickey, who fell to third.  With Strasburg’s ascension, the Nationals now have the top two pitchers in the rankings, with Gio Gonzalez holding down the number two spot.  You can see the ratings for all the American and National League pitchers and hitters by going to Bias Free Sports.

RK Player Team GP GS IP W L ERA K WHIP Rating
1 Stephen Strasburg WAS 13 13 77 8 1 2.450 100 1.040 22.010
2 Gio Gonzalez WAS 12 12 72.2 8 2 2.350 89 1.000 21.050
3 R.A. Dickey NYM 12 12 81 9 1 2.440 78 1.040 20.820
4 Cole Hamels PHI 12 12 83 8 3 2.930 86 1.050 20.120
5 Lance Lynn STL 12 12 74.1 9 2 2.660 74 1.140 20.100
6 Matt Cain SF 12 12 86 7 2 2.410 82 0.940 19.350
7 Zack Greinke MIL 13 13 79 7 2 2.960 89 1.220 19.220
8 Madison Bumgarner SF 13 13 87.2 8 4 3.080 74 1.120 18.700
9 Chris Capuano LAD 13 13 78.1 8 2 2.870 68 1.160 18.270
10 Clayton Kershaw LAD 13 13 88.1 5 3 2.650 81 1.000 16.950