Bias Free Sports’ NFL computer picks for Week 6

Going into week 6 of the NFL games, we’re starting to get a lot more data for the computer to absorb and as such, predictions tend to keep getting better because they are playing off known trends by each team.  Of course, anomalies happen each week (Green Bay vs. Seattle, anyone?), but the models should start be fairly accurate in forecasting winners (not necessarily the lines, but even those start to have some predictability to them).  Here are Bias Free Sports ratings match ups for this coming weekend.  In reading these, note that the home field advantage for each team is already factored in, and a positive number under the “difference” column means that the home team is favored, while a negative number means the visiting team is favored.  So, for example, Atlanta is home this week against Oakland and is favored to win by 14.09 (or 14, rounding to the nearest whole number).  The line is 9.5, so Bias Free Sports would predict that Atlanta would cover that line.  Conversely, Seattle is at home against New England.  The ratings predict that New England should just win, but not cover the 4 point spread.  To see the complete ratings for each team, including how each team is trending, go to (best to use Chrome, Firefox or Safari–Internet Explorer sucks at reading tables!).

 Difference   Current
Home Rating Visitor  Rating  (H+HFA)-V   Line
Arizona 40.870 Buffalo 31.128              12.74                4.0
Atlanta 40.708 Oakland 29.620              14.09                9.5
Baltimore 40.200 Dallas 35.612                7.59                3.5
Cleveland 32.892 Cincinnati 35.034                0.86             (3.0)
Houston 42.428 Green Bay 39.808                5.62                3.0
Miami 37.282 St. Louis 39.506                0.78                4.5
NY Jets 34.720 Indianapolis 35.857                1.86                3.0
Philadelphia 37.448 Detroit 36.386                4.06                4.0
San Francisco 45.331 NY Giants 39.938                8.39                6.5
Seattle 39.304 New England 42.355              (0.05)             (4.0)
Tampa Bay 32.144 Kansas City 31.919                3.22                4.0
Washington 35.061 Minnesota 41.330              (3.27)                   –
San Diego 36.014 Denver 40.151              (1.14)                   –

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