Bias Free Sports NBA Computer Predictions for January 16th

Below are our computer predictions for the NBA games for Wednesday, January 16th.  Remember that a positive number means that the home team is favored, while a negative number means the visiting team is favored, and a 3 point home court advantage is already built in.  You can see the complete team rankings for the NBA and NFL by going to www.biasfreerankings.com!

 Difference
Home Rating Visitor  Rating  (H+HFA)-V
Atlanta 88.87 Brooklyn 98.60          (6.73)
Boston 94.79 New Orleans 93.01           4.78
Dallas 92.62 Houston 93.65           1.97
Golden State 95.82 Miami 95.49           3.33
Oklahoma City 101.03 Denver 98.57           5.47
Orlando 86.79 Indiana 96.65          (6.86)
Portland 92.90 Cleveland 87.26           8.64
Sacramento 87.78 Washington 90.32           0.46
San Antonio 99.65 Memphis 95.92           6.73
Toronto 93.83 Chicago 95.74           1.09

Bias Free Sports NBA Computer Predictions for January 10 games

Here are our computer predictions for today’s NBA games.  A positive number in the difference column means the home team is favored, while a negative number means the visiting team is favored.  For the complete NBA rankings, go to www.biasfreerankings.com/NBARankings.htm.

 Difference
Home Rating Visitor  Rating  (H+HFA)-V
Indiana 95.95 New York 95.31           3.65
Portland 93.20 Miami 95.21           0.98
Sacramento 89.87 Dallas 87.37           5.50

Bias Free Sports NBA computer predictions for December 24th

Happy holidays!  Below are Bias Free Sports’ computer predictions for the NBA Christmas Eve games–we’ll also post tomorrow our predictions for the heavy slate of Christmas Day games.  You can see all the NBA team ratings (as well as NFL and NCAA football ratings) at www.biasfreerankings.com (note–a positive number means the home team is favored, a negative number means the visiting team is favored, and the ratings include a home court advantage of 3 points):

 Difference
Home Rating Visitor  Rating  (H+HFA)-V
Brooklyn 92.08 Boston 90.49           4.59
Chicago 94.47 Houston 100.21          (2.73)
LA Clippers 104.08 Denver 98.55           8.52
LA Lakers 94.88 New York 95.72           2.16
Miami 102.31 Oklahoma City 100.00           5.31

Bias Free Sports’ NBA Ratings Now Posted

Bias Free Sports is now posting its NBA matchup predictions on its NBA page at http://www.biasfreerankings.com/NBArankings.htm. Note that this page is best viewed in Chrome, Firefox or Safari. Explorer just doesn’t seem to read tables well.

Regarding the rankings, you should be very cautious in utilizing these rankings so early in the season. The way my model is built (primarily a margin of victory versus quality of opponent type model), it typically takes about 5-7 games for each team for the model to really start tracking accurately. So caveat emptor. I’ll put a post up in the near future giving you a rough idea of how the numbers are assimilated.

In the meantime, I’m having a real battle with myself over whether to produce NCAA basketball ratings. I have started and stopped numerous times on building the revamped model and have just looked at how much time it is taking to put that together, not to mention how much time each day it would take to input those day’s games. NBA games are easy enough because at most you might have 12 games a day. Opening night alone for the NCAA features 124 games. Every Saturday will have over 160 games. To keep ratings timely, you have to input that data as it happens, and that may not be a luxury I have. I continue to debate with myself about it, and I’m going to Vegas next week, so I’ll probably make a decision on this after my return. I don’t like posting ratings for the college teams anyway early for the same reason I gave above–you need about 4-5 games to give you a more accurate reading on a team.

Again, thoughts and prayers to all our friends on the east coast as you recover from the devastation of Hurricane Sandy.

Predictions for Saturday’s NBA games

Here are predictions for today’s games in the NBA playoffs from Bias Free Sports based on our latest computer rankings.  To read this chart, the team on the left is the home team.  Subtracting the visiting team’s rating from the home team’s rating gives the predicted outcome (the number in the far right column).  If the number is negative, the visiting team is favored, if the number is positive, the home team is favored.  3.5 points is added to the home team’s number for home court advantage.  For example, in the Clippers-Memphis game, when you add the 3.5 points to the LA Clippers rating and then subtract the Grizzlies rating, the Clippers should be favored by 3.73 points.  You can then compare that to the Vegas line.  If the Clippers are favored by 3, then you would want to take the Clippers because the 3.73 point differential is greater than three.  You can see all the NBA ratings as well as Major League Baseball team and player ratings by going to www.biasfreerankings.com.

Note: ratings include home court advantage  Difference
Home Rating Visitor  Rating  (H+HFA)-V
Dallas 96.344 Oklahoma City 100.500 -0.657
LA Clippers 97.617 Memphis 97.384 3.733
Orlando 95.940 Indiana 98.246 1.194
Utah 95.818 San Antonio 101.705 -2.388

San Antonio takes over the top spot in latest NBA computer rankings

It took nearly all season, but the San Antonio Spurs have taken over as the number one team in the latest computer rankings of NBA teams by Bias Free Sports.  Chicago held that spot almost from day 1 of the season, but the last three weeks have seen an amazing run by the Spurs coupled with Derrick Rose’s injury to vault them over the Bulls.  You can see the complete ratings, along with ratings for Major League Baseball, by going to http://www.biasfreerankings.com/nbarankings.htm

Season Avg Last Avg Last Avg Last  TREND
Rating 10 GM 8 GM 6 GM  10 to 6 gm
1 San Antonio 101.711 109.777 109.239 108.110  Down
2 Chicago 101.685 101.002 100.481 100.196  Down
3 Miami 100.598 99.392 98.764 95.430  Down
4 Oklahoma City 100.377 98.665 96.769 97.026  Down
5 Indiana 98.251 101.294 99.946 98.985  Down
6 Philadelphia 98.219 95.987 98.429 98.466  Up
7 Atlanta 97.884 102.048 102.886 99.294  Down
8 LA Clippers 97.621 98.788 97.419 94.613  Down
9 Boston 97.481 98.625 99.070 100.317  Up
10 Denver 97.442 100.485 100.861 102.855  Up
11 Memphis 97.389 98.529 100.123 99.247  Up
12 LA Lakers 97.163 97.489 95.376 96.864  Down
13 New York 97.075 97.458 95.704 93.383  Down
14 Dallas 96.524 95.875 94.375 94.799  Down
15 Orlando 95.943 92.246 88.713 88.152  Down

End of Season NBA Computer Rankings

Here are the computer rankings for all 30 NBA teams as of the end of the regular season, according to Bias Free Sports, which will provide predictions for upcoming playoff games.  See the continuing ratings for the NBA, MLB, NFL and other sports by going to www.biasfreerankings.com.

Season Avg Last Avg Last Avg Last  TREND
Rating 10 GM 8 GM 6 GM  10 to 6 gm
1 Chicago 101.978 103.155 102.643 105.322  Up
2 San Antonio 101.425 108.322 109.261 108.389  Up
3 Miami 100.559 99.630 98.151 95.878  Down
4 Oklahoma City 100.440 99.395 98.696 96.180  Down
5 Philadelphia 98.028 95.722 95.174 97.502  Up
6 Indiana 98.025 100.704 101.098 99.992  Down
7 Atlanta 97.961 103.011 103.617 105.231  Up
8 Denver 97.725 104.739 103.388 104.868  Up
9 LA Clippers 97.702 98.811 99.627 98.079  Down
10 Boston 97.446 99.217 98.519 99.073  Down
11 Memphis 97.407 98.522 98.863 101.065  Up
12 New York 97.195 98.563 95.579 95.410  Down
13 LA Lakers 96.946 94.479 95.638 92.207  Down
14 Dallas 96.592 96.170 96.071 94.128  Down
15 Orlando 96.273 93.318 91.478 91.601  Down
16 Utah 96.248 99.316 99.767 101.161  Up
17 Houston 95.709 91.774 91.370 92.978  Up
18 Phoenix 95.517 95.600 94.268 93.598  Down
19 Milwaukee 95.317 92.269 93.827 92.309  Up
20 Portland 94.654 87.407 88.176 85.688  Down
21 Minnesota 93.706 86.897 88.186 88.051  Up
22 Golden State 92.703 89.538 90.034 91.503  Up
23 Toronto 92.487 92.414 93.323 94.128  Up
24 New Orleans 92.353 96.511 96.719 93.861  Down
25 Detroit 91.572 93.556 93.896 96.255  Up
26 Washington 91.403 101.242 99.785 107.446  Up
27 Sacramento 91.004 90.999 92.492 95.377  Up
28 New Jersey 90.584 88.957 86.338 84.444  Down
29 Cleveland 89.811 85.630 83.865 86.918  Up
30 Charlotte 84.457 80.855 81.503 80.067  Down