Bias Free Sports computer predictions for opening playoff games

On now to the “second season” of the NFL, and we have run the computer projections for this weekend’s games. I am on the road, so I can’t post things the way I normally would, but you can get the full projections at http://www.biasfreerankings.com/NFL_Ratings.html.  Here, though is a brief summary of our picks for this weekend’s games:

Cincinnati @ Houston:  Cincy by 9.9 (I will be at this game)
Minnesota @ Green Bay: Green Bay by 5.2
Indianapolis @ Baltimore: Baltimore by 6.6
Seattle @ Washington: Seattle by 11.8

I feel most confident in the Baltimore and Green Bay games. Seattle and Washington are both hot teams right now, and Washington hasn’t had a home playoff game in a long time, so that place will be rocking. I could see that one going either way despite the large computer edge. Similarly, Cincinnati is coming to Houston on a hot streak while Houston is in a major funk. Strangely is similar to what happened last year as Houston lost its last three games entering the playoffs and still won by 21 over the Bengals in front of a ramped up crowd. So we shall see.

Today’s sports trivia:
Minnesota and Green Bay have played against each other 103 times in the regular season, but this weekend marks only the second time they have played each other in the postseason. The first, an opening round game in 2004, was won by the Vikings 31-17.

Advertisements

Bias Free Sports NFL computer picks for Week 8

A tough week for everyone last week as there were a lot of close games, but hopefully this week fares better for everyone (although honestly, how many people had Tampa Bay winning AT Minnesota?).  This week’s NFL computer projections from Bias Free Sports are shown below.  Note that the home field advantage is already built in.  If the difference is negative, then the visiting team is favored, if positive, then the home team is projected to win.  For example, the Giants are favored by 4.27 points over the Cowboys (round to the nearest half point, so actually 4.5 points).  Vegas says they are a 2 point favorite, so we would say not only would they win, but they would cover the spread.  You can see all of our NFL team ratings by going to our free site at www.biasfreerankings.com/NFL_ratings.html. [UPDATE 10/27] Note that there is a slight change from the previous posting to reflect that St. Louis and New England are playing on a neutral field.

 Difference  Current
Home Rating Visitor  Rating  (H+HFA)-V  Line
Chicago 44.57 Carolina 35.51              12.06                7.5
Cleveland 33.58 San Diego 35.86                0.72             (3.0)
Dallas 37.29 NY Giants 44.09              (3.79)             (2.0)
Denver 41.34 New Orleans 36.98                7.36                6.0
Detroit 36.26 Seattle 39.31              (0.06)                2.5
Green Bay 42.33 Jacksonville 29.96              15.37             14.5
Kansas City 29.94 Oakland 31.70                1.24                1.5
NY Jets 37.69 Miami 37.26                3.43                2.5
Philadelphia 35.83 Atlanta 40.24              (1.41)                3.0
Pittsburgh 35.51 Washington 40.18              (1.67)                4.5
St. Louis 39.31 New England 40.75              (1.44)             (7.0)
Tennessee 30.99 Indianapolis 32.66                1.33                3.5
Arizona 35.86 San Francisco 44.51              (5.65)             (7.0)